Friday, February 11, 2011

Blindly sell into undesirable

 Faster than planned changes. Today A shares fell 266 points to, creating the biggest decline in six months Zheng opened the week off capacity. Why should the Olympics come to such a wave of Chinese New Year is alarmed to sell into? Raising the deposit reserve gold markets around the weaknesses, there really so much destruction it? I believe that the current policy in China under the premise of the city, do not rule out this is an idea management: the management market, betting on the current boom before the Olympics, After the collapse of the speculation Olympic deeply considered. So, starting the year on a first-come round of risk education, psychological instant success playing this impetuous, so that we can maintain a more rational state of mind, so go to Manniu farther away. to see the overall trend this year, three negative factors: 1 macro-tightening to intensify; 2 inflation; 3 industrial raw materials, agricultural product price increases accelerated. This set the trend for the whole year, the band and the main keynote shock. However, the broader market has been falling in the current context for several days, sell into the blind flesh is irrational:
one, the report pre-increase. In the current report of listed companies generally advance by 30%, a study A shares currently report only 29 times the dynamic price-earnings ratio, under the premise that fundamental disregard completely set, crazy chase sell suicidal behavior.
Second, the current A shares into the pain and the external market is linkage phase, but in the end island. China and the United States have very different economic environment and the fundamentals. the U.S. economy, after long-term development is close to saturation, the subprime crisis is the overdraft to the future, the cost of excessive consumption. Now the United States more U.S. dollar dominated by the global financial, to make the world pay for it. China is still only 20% m30% of the middle phase of a large number of relatively poor rural population. their growing needs, the constant desire to work hard off that China's economy the driving force behind growth. So, A shares are subject to sub-prime, by the U.S. stock market fluctuations are only temporary, A shares will eventually be an exception. I adhere to the A shares of the gold bull market years.
must now caught a lot of friends. I suggest at this time can not be blindly sell into. should be in the afternoon when the counter, out of the hands of the market value of the first line of big blue chips. in the first half to be more concerned about the GEM, the Olympic version, version of the small stock index futures market stocks. institutional funds currently on the market dramatic escape, but also for the looting after the launch of the GEM chips and stock index futures move up as a preparation. The market outlook, adjustment, I see the 4300-4500 line. The leading share index fell to 24-25 when the Chinese oil block, and when the time is to stabilize the broader market.
Finally, I would like to talk about the case of U.S. stocks. Today the Nikkei fell 3.86%, which is presented to investors in the new Bush's fiscal stimulus package $ 145,000,000,000 no-confidence vote. The money, allocated to each of the pockets of taxpayers is $ 800, in the United States it is equivalent to the price of an LCD TV. This is huge for the current subprime crisis is only a drop in the bucket. Chinese companies are impact of the U.S. economy, mostly for export enterprises, non-ferrous metals, energy, and purchased the subprime mortgage bond bank. This is still a small part of the overall national economy. Moreover, China's economic growth, has been gradually transferred to the expansion of domestic demand from the export in the past. U.S. economy, but more highlights the weakness of China's economy booming, A shares of the shadow of Wall Street will eventually be able to air our own Chinese red.

No comments:

Post a Comment